Myślenie strategiczne

Decision scenarios

Decision scenarios are possible futures used to prepare decisions, responses and contingency plans.

Definition

Decision scenarios are not intended to predict the future with certainty. They help you broaden your perspective, see risks, prepare a response plan and avoid decisions based only on one vision of the future. Most often, it is worth considering a favorable, realistic and crisis scenario.

Key ideas

  1. Warianty przyszłości
  2. Przygotowanie reakcji
  3. Decyzje w niepewności

Practice and life

Before an important decision, write out three scenarios: good, realistic and difficult. For each step, add a first step and a signal after which you will change the plan.

Common misunderstanding

It is a mistake to treat scenarios as predictions. It is also a mistake to plan only for the optimistic scenario.

Questions for self-reflection

  • Jakie trzy przyszłości są możliwe?
  • Co zrobię w każdej z nich?
  • Jaki sygnał powie mi, że czas zmienić plan?

Sources