Working hypotheses
Working hypotheses are preliminary, provisional explanations used to guide observation, testing, and action.
Definition
Working hypotheses are useful in situations with incomplete data. They allow you to act without pretending to be confident and at the same time avoid chaos. Unlike final beliefs, they should be easily updated as new information becomes available.
Key ideas
- Temporariness
- Testing direction
- Updated based on data
Practice and life
For the problem, write down three working hypotheses and for each, specify the simplest test that will provide more information within a week.
Common misconceptions
It is a mistake to fall in love with a working hypothesis. Her job is to conduct research, not to build an identity.
> A working hypothesis is there to help you make the next reasonable test, not to replace facts.
> — Guru Element
Questions for self-reflection
- Which hypothesis best explains the current data?
- What's the easiest way to check it?
- What would it take for me to reject her?