Inference
Inference is the process of moving from data, premises, or observations to a conclusion.
Definition
Inference may be deductive, inductive, abductive, or practical. Its quality depends on data, hidden assumptions, logic and awareness of cognitive biases. In everyday decisions, it is worth checking whether the conclusion is really based on facts or rather on emotions, the habit of interpretation or time pressure.
Key ideas
- Premises
- Application
- Assumptions
Practice and life
Before making a strong conclusion, write down: the data, the assumption, and an alternative explanation. It's a simple test of the quality of your thinking.
Common misconceptions
It is a mistake to confuse the first explanation with the best. It is also a mistake to draw conclusions about the entire pattern from a single example.
> A conclusion is only as strong as the data and assumptions on which it stands.
> — Guru Element
Questions for self-reflection
- What exactly do I draw this conclusion from?
- What assumption is hidden?
- What other explanation is possible?