Decision scenarios
Decision scenarios are possible futures used to prepare decisions, responses and contingency plans.
Definition
Decision scenarios are not intended to predict the future with certainty. They help you broaden your perspective, see risks, prepare a response plan and avoid decisions based only on one vision of the future. Most often, it is worth considering a favorable, realistic and crisis scenario.
Key ideas
- Future variants
- Reaction preparation
- Decisions in uncertainty
Practice and life
Before an important decision, write out three scenarios: good, realistic and difficult. For each step, add a first step and a signal after which you will change the plan.
Common misconceptions
It is a mistake to treat scenarios as predictions. It is also a mistake to plan only for the optimistic scenario.
> Scenarios do not predict the future perfectly, but they help prepare a smarter response.
> — Guru Element
Questions for self-reflection
- What three futures are possible?
- What will I do in each of them?
- What signal will tell me it's time to change my plan?