Representativeness heuristic
The representativeness heuristic is the judgment of probability based on similarity to a known pattern, prototype, or stereotype.
Definition
This cognitive shortcut occurs when a person considers something more likely because it looks typical of a given category. May lead to omission of base rate, statistics and context. In practice, it promotes stereotypes, hasty diagnoses and excessive trust in a narrative that sounds credible.
Key ideas
- Similarity to the prototype
- Skip the base rate
- Risk of stereotyping
Practice and life
When assessing a person or situation, add a question: what is the base frequency and what data contradicts the first impression?
Common misconceptions
It is a mistake to assume that something is true just because it fits a known story. Representativeness is not evidence.
> Pattern similarity is not a replacement for the database.
> — Guru Element
Questions for self-reflection
- What pattern am I comparing this situation to?
- Do I include statistics or just similarity?
- What alternative explanation is less effective but more likely?